Lumber to soar in 2013?

May 24, 2011 – According to Russ Taylor, president of Wood Markets, 2013 to
2015 will see a wild ride in wood products demand and pricing. Reporting from
his company’s Global Wood Products: Industry and Markets Conference in Vancouver
on May 10, the well-known market watcher says the consensus among speakers is
that while this year and perhaps even next will see only slight market
improvements in North America and Europe, things get interesting after that.

“Speakers identified 2013–2015 as the break-out period, when
an imbalance in supply and demand will lead to much higher log and lumber
prices. The mid-term outlook for OSB and plywood was considered to be more
subdued, but rising demand in the mid-term period will allow for more curtailed
OSB mills to start up, with improving prices a foregone conclusion.”

Taylor adds that every speaker mentioned the role of China
as a major factor in causing these higher prices as more traditional markets
start heating up. “China’s growing appetite for logs and lumber will continue
to increase imports from supplying countries.” This, coupled with recovering
markets in the United States and Europe, will cause a global bidding war for
available resources, many of the speakers predicted.

For logging contractors and sawmills, this will likely mean
a fast ramp-up period when demand takes off, no doubt a welcome rush for many.
For the biomass sector, this may mean a significant increase in available
sawmill residues, but also increased competition for marginal saw timber in
some areas.

The second annual Global Wood Products conference will take
place May 9, 2012, in Vancouver.